NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – After completing four years of gains, the U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year on Monday. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of Oct. 12, 2022. The index closed that session at 3,577.03, marking its lowest close since November 2020. By the end of last week, it finished at 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% increase for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This ongoing rally is the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record. It also stands as the seventh that has persisted for at least four years. The 119% surge, however, trails the average gain of 184% seen across the studied bull markets. Notably, the 2009-to-2020 cycle experienced a 401% increase, and the 1987-to-2000 advance reached 582%. These previous periods remain among the most robust and prolonged gains in the comparison.
Historical data suggests that performances in the fifth year of past bull markets have generally been favorable, though results differ between cycles. Out of the last 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year anniversary. For those that reached five years, average returns were 12%, with a median of 15%. Analyzing previous cycles also shows an average maximum decline of around 14% during the fifth year. These figures describe past market behavior and do not predict the current trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support the Continued Market Rise
Earnings reports remain a key driver of the current upward trend. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings were 29.6% higher than the same period last year as of Oct. 9. This marks a third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%. By the end of September, the growth estimate was 29.2%. Among 19 index companies reporting, 84% surpassed analysts’ average earnings forecasts, with their combined earnings exceeding estimates by 4.9%.
Expectations remain high for robust profit growth through the end of 2026. Projections suggest that fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings will increase by 27.6% compared to a year earlier, while full-year earnings are forecasted to grow by 32.4%. Approximately 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research indicates that these companies are responsible for about 75% of the revisions made so far to 2027 estimates, underscoring the technology sector’s significant role in current earnings adjustments.
Rising Interest Rates Mark the Fifth Year Milestone
The current rally occurs amid rising interest rates and high U.S. government bond yields. On Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated. Projections released in September set the median economic growth for 2026 at 2.3%, with unemployment expected at 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled from Oct. 27 through Oct. 28.
Long-term Treasury yields continue to stay elevated as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. As of Oct. 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24%, with the 30-year at 5.60%. Despite the rising yields, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% in that session, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite moved up by 0.6%. U.S. equities are now entering their fifth year close to record highs, supported by strong earnings growth amid higher borrowing costs.