LONDON / ConSynSer / – On Wednesday, October 21, oil prices experienced an upward movement with Brent crude futures increasing by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, as reported by Reuters. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate crude saw an increase of over $1, settling at $99 per barrel. This price shift occurred amid a highly volatile trading session fueled by recent assaults on shipping and energy facilities in the Middle East. Market participants balanced these threats against indications of recovering crude shipments from the Gulf, with Brent trading nearly 80% higher than the same period last year.
The Revolutionary Guards of Iran announced that naval mines had impeded three tankers operating on routes Iran regards as unauthorized. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirmed a vessel was struck near Oman. Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco installations in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, as well as on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These incidents reignited worries over supply routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the trading day, prices experienced significant fluctuations. Brent’s gains diminished later in the session, pushing its price below $108 at one point. WTI briefly reached $100 before slipping below $98. Elevated freight rates in the Persian Gulf continued to underpin the price movements. According to Trading Economics data, Brent has risen approximately 8% over the past month. Additionally, oil prices saw a rebound in late September after a four-session decline.
Gulf export flows counteract supply concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing prewar levels. Data from Kpler and Vortexa tracking tankers revealed that Middle East crude exports have increased since summer. Producers are augmenting shuttle shipments via Hormuz and conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. In August, Saudi crude exports rose by 7.9%, reaching their highest since March. This resurgence in flows helped restrict gains during Wednesday’s trading session.
US inventory figures also impacted market sentiment. The Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of just over 3 million barrels in US crude stocks last week, while the American Petroleum Institute indicated a larger decline of 4.9 million barrels. US weekly crude production was about 13.27 million barrels per day, down from 13.68 million the previous week. These reduced inventories suggest tighter supply conditions in the world’s leading oil-consuming country.
Russian diesel exports and recent Saudi attacks in focus
Russia is preparing to ship its first diesel load to the United States on Thursday, following an agreement between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Trump waived Russia sanctions last week under the Graham Act, facilitating this deal. Meanwhile, Ukraine has conducted large drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, signaling Kyiv’s effort to curb Moscow’s diesel export capacity, according to Trading Economics.
Prices surged again on Thursday, October 22, after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field resulted in two fatalities. Brent surpassed $111 per barrel, and WTI moved above $99. The United States ordered some personnel and their families to leave its diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia. Traders continue to monitor Gulf shipping activities, Saudi oil production levels, and Russian fuel exports for future price developments.